Welfare State, Social Stratification, Democracy and Emigration Intentions

According to the ‘new economics’ of migration, social stratification and social protection are important for emigration decisions and behaviour, but there is scarce evidence how welfare programmes independently correlate with emigration. The first part of the project uses the recent UNDP/UNICEF Social Exclusion Survey for two former Soviet republics of Moldova and Ukraine and two former Yugoslav Republics of Macedonia and Serbia and employs multivariate regressions techniques. It finds that social stratification in terms of occupational social class and subjective perception of well-being has statistically significant association with emigration; having social insurance correlates with lower propensity to leave the country, whereas the quality of jobs has significant effect on emigration intentions. The varying results between Balkan and former Soviet states suggest that the effect of welfare provisions depends on the macro context of emigration decisions.

The second part of the study tries to understand the modes of emigration from the South Caucasian countries and investigates new patterns emerging because of recent developments in the region. Since 2005, South Caucasian countries diverged in their socio-economic models of development, which are reflected in different covariates of emigration intentions in these societies. Using micro-level survey data from the Caucasus Barometer for 2009-2010, this paper looks at how various sets of variables associate with emigration intentions. We test a hypothesis that recent uneven economic and political developments are reflected in individuals’ intentions to leave these societies. Results indicate that, controlling for other covariates, political attitudes have significant associations with emigration intentions and the effect appears to be more important in Azerbaijan, while economic problems seem to be most relevant for emigration intentions from Georgia

The Motivation and the Decision-making Process of Highly Educated Emigrants

This paper analyses the complex relations between motivation and dimensions of the emigration-decision model. In order to develop a complex and up-to-date approach, the research used the self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) and the theory of planned behaviour (Ajzen, 1991). Constructed instruments are found to have adequate psychometric characteristics. The sample, divided into emigrants and their current place of residence, consisted of two groups of highly educated adults that are or were Serbian citizens.

The study proved the applicability of a model using the theory of planned behaviour, as well as the partial mediation role of emigration intention for influencing perceived behavioural control. A further analysis is required for a precise conclusion about moderating effects of push and pull factors. Results showed that the resiliency model of emigration motivation is more appropriate for the emigration of highly educated persons. The conclusion that emigrants would like to contribute more to Serbian development indicates that Serbian government should open dialogue with emigrants in order to find possible ways of engaging them.

Migration and Its Effects on Economic and Demographic Development in Romania

This paper focuses on migration from Romania, which still needs effective policies reflecting the economic, demographic and social environments. The first part provides a descriptive analysis of the characteristics of Romanians’ emigration, while the second part uses the most relevant literature, theories and policies to discuss the duality of past and future economic and socio-demographic effects of this phenomenon.

The second part particularises the findings of exploratory research about the intention to emigrate from Romania of highly educated people, trying to analyse significant relations between intention to emigrate and its determinants. This small empirical study of the determinants of intentions to migrate abroad contributes to an area with relatively little knowledge – Romanian emigration. The most important objective of this exploratory research was to find significant associations between push and pull factors of Romanian migration and the intention of emigration (temporary and permanent). The main findings consist in analysing five most important associations between intention of emigration and selected determinants and their intensity indicators. Economic and non-economic factors were associated with the intention of permanent or temporary migration of the highly educated group. The intention to migrate or not and the associated causes suggest that their motivations are more diverse and do not all concentrate on wages. Their perceptions and criticism regarding future labour market, in the context of a psychological experiment, are important because these factors might shape their future attitude regarding the decision to emigrate.

Life (Dis)satisfaction and Decision to Migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

This paper provides the first evidence regarding the impact of life satisfaction on the individual intention to migrate. One framework is used to analyse the impact of individual characteristics and country macroeconomic variables on migration decisions. Unlike other studies, this research allows life satisfaction to serve as a mediator between macroeconomic variables and the intention to migrate. Using the Eurobarometer survey for 27 Central Eastern (CEE) and Western European (non-CEE) countries, it tests the predictions of the theoretical model and finds that people dissatisfied with life have higher intentions to migrate. The macroeconomic conditions affect the intention to migrate indirectly through life satisfaction. The study finds that at all levels of life satisfaction, the unemployed, middle-age individuals at all levels of education with low or average income from urban areas have higher intentions to migrate from CEE countries than from non-CEE countries.